Todd Zola, FantasyAug 4, 2024, 10:27 AM ET
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- Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
- Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Ray of hope
The San Francisco Giants are on the periphery of the NL Wild Card chase. They sit a manageable four games out of the third wild card spot, but they'll need to leapfrog four clubs to make the postseason.
The return to form of SP Blake Snell is a boon, as is SP Robbie Ray recovered from Tommy John surgery, and back in the rotation. Ray's first two starts of the season were a mixed bag. His debut against the Los Angeles Dodgers was solid, limiting them to one earned run in five frames, fanning eight. However, last time out, Ray yielded three homers to the Oakland Athletics, resulting in four runs in 4 1/3 innings.
The general trend with Tommy John recoverees is for the velocity to return first, with command and control lagging. This is exactly the case for Ray as his four-seam fastball velocity matches his pre-injury level, but he's struggling with throwing strikes. Not only has Ray walked five hitters in 9 1/3 innings, but he's also hit two batters and unleashed a pair of wild pitches.
For years, Ray lacked control. However, in 2021 and 2022, the posted produced walk rates well below league average. However, his home run rate was still well about league average.
With Snell joining SP Logan Webb as aces, the Giants rotation can hang with any of the staffs competing for a playoff berth. If Ray can approach his previous form, the Giants will be dangerous down the stretch.
On Saturday, Ray (32.4% rostered in ESPN leagues) faces a Cincinnati Reds lineup still reeling from Snell's no hitter on Friday night. However, this will be the third straight southpaw starter taking the hill, which should benefit the Reds. Even so, the Reds have fanned at a hefty 28.9% clip facing left-handers over the past month, putting Ray in play as a streaming option for the final day of this head-to-head scoring period.
What you may have missed on Saturday
The Los Angeles Angels placed 2B Luis Rengifo on the 10-day IL with recurrence of right wrist inflammation. Rengifo has been a surprising source of steals with 24 bags. The Angels have no reason to rush him back, so Rengifo team managers should seek out an alternative for stolen bases.
Chicago White Sox 1B Andrew Vaughn was a late scratch on Saturday as he was under the weather. His availability for today is unclear. Gavin Sheets filled in and is the likely substitute if Vaughn remains sidelined.
Pittsburgh Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen had to leave last night's affair in the sixth inning after experiencing left quadriceps tightness. McCutchen singled, then left for a pinch-runner. McCutchen has served as the Pirates DH, so the club will likely rotate a variety of players through the spot if McCutchen needs to miss action.
The late-inning hierarchy for the Miami Marlins is coming into focus. Last night, the Marlins took a one-run lead over the Atlanta Braves into the bottom of the seventh. Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi and Calvin Faucher maintained the lead with Bender and Nardi capturing holds before Faucher logged his first save.
The Kansas City Royals called on RP Hunter Harvey to close out last night's matchup with the Detroit Tigers. Unfortunately, Harvey failed to deliver, allowing the Tigers to tie the game 5-5, sending it to extra innings. The clubs traded runs in the 10th, then the Tigers took a one run lead in the 11th. Royals RP James McArthur surrendered a pair of runs, giving the Tigers a 6-5 win. Harvey garnered the save chance with McArthur struggling. The catch is Harvey isn't pitching well either as he's coming off a 8.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in July. The Royals are in the thick of the wild card chase, so they'll need to figure out the back end of their bullpen. It wouldn't be surprising if newly acquired Lucas Erceg is trusted with a more prominent role.
Continuing the closer theme, Hunter Strickland garnered the first two save chances for the Angels following their trade of Carlos Estevez. Strickland converted the first but failed to deliver last Thursday night. Yesterday, Ben Joyce collected his first career save, recording four outs in the process. The final out was a strikeout on a 104.7 mph fastball.
Everything else you need to know for Sunday
Please note, Sunday's Reds-Giants affair kicks off the slate at 12:05 PM ET. Your pickups need to be finalized by that time, though you have until the start of each player's game to set their active/reserve status.
Houston Astros SP Spencer Arrighetti (3.3% rostered) is Sunday's highest ranked streaming option for his home date with the Tampa Bay Rays. Arrighetti struggled in July, going 0-3 in five starts with a 5.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He continued to miss bats with 29 strikeouts in 27 frames, but he walked 12 while yielding five homers. The Rays offense sports the fifth lowest wOBA and seventh highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have deployed SP Tyler Glasnow on fewer than five days of rest just once this season. The trend continues Saturday with SP River Ryan (14.5% rostered) taking the hill on the road against the Oakland Athletics, pushing Glasnow to Monday when he'll pitch with five days of rest. To be fair, Ryan earned this start after limiting the Houston Astros to one earned run over 5 1/3 innings earlier in the week. The catch is the Athletics scored the second most runs per game in July, surpassed only by the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, over the past week, the Athletics have tallied the 10th fewest runs per game.
Heading into Saturday's action, the Kansas City Royals were enjoying a five-game winning streak as they took advantage of playing AL Central bottom dwellers, the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers. On Sunday, the Royals wrap up a four-game set with the Tigers in Motown. Michael Wacha is ticketed to take the hill against the fourth least potent team facing right-handers. The rule of thumb is not chasing wins, but sometimes it's necessary, especially in category head-to-head leagues. Wacha should be in good shape to pick up a victory on Sunday.
After Friday's night's action, the Chicago White Sox were suffering through an 18-game losing streak. Ironically, their last win came courtesy of the Minnesota Twins, who happen to be Sunday's opponent. Simeon Woods Richardson (9.5%) lines up to face the White Sox in the series finale. Woods Richardson is coming off his worst game of the season where he gave up six earned runs on the road to the New York Mets. Prior to that effort, Woods Richardson was on a roll, compiling a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 30 strikeouts in 33 1/3 stanzas, spanning six starts. Woods Richardson should get back on track facing the White Sox.
Betting Tip of the Day: Minnesota Twins 3B Royce Lewis continues to be extremely productive in between IL stints. On Sunday, Lewis and the Twins will face Chicago White Sox SP Chris Flexen. The Twins have one of the highest implied runs total on the Sunday docket, setting up Lewis for another big game. I'm taking the over on Lewis and 2.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110).
Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Byron Buxton (MIN, DH -- 29%) vs. Chris Flexen
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, 1B -- 4%) at Carson Spiers
Michael Conforto (SF, RF -- 12%) at Spiers
Logan O'Hoppe (LAA, C -- 50%) vs. Jose Quintana
Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH, 2B -- 17%) vs. Tobias Myers
Rhys Hoskins (MIL, 1B -- 29%) at Mitchell Parker
Zach Neto (LAA, SS -- 12%) vs. Quintana
Rowdy Tellez (PIT, 1B -- 2%) vs. Ryne Nelson
Alex Verdugo (NYY, RF -- 46%) vs. Yariel Rodriguez
Taylor Ward (LAA, LF -- 45%) vs. Quintana
Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 53%) at Paul Skenes
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI, LF -- 79%) at Skenes
Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 69%) at Logan Gilbert
Brenton Doyle (COL, CF -- 53%) at Matt Waldron
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 79%) at Gilbert
Randy Arozarena (SEA, LF -- 80%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Bryson Stott (PHI, 2B -- 82%) at Gilbert
Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 78%) vs. Wheeler
Tyler O'Neill (BOS, LF -- 56%) at Nathan Eovaldi
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 78%) vs. Rodriguez
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today
New York Yankees vs. Rodriguez
New York Mets at Griffin Canning
Minnesota Twins vs. Flexen
